Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.029879 0.033994 0.038488 0.043766 0.049798 0.056483 0.064459
2025-02-09 0.023965 0.029693 0.036519 0.045270 0.056214 0.069482 0.086836
2025-02-16 0.020064 0.026319 0.034221 0.044968 0.059255 0.077668 0.103317
2025-02-23 0.017531 0.024092 0.032786 0.045198 0.062551 0.086077 0.120608
2025-03-02 0.015333 0.021928 0.031032 0.044586 0.064377 0.092412 0.135477
2025-03-09 0.014023 0.020788 0.030478 0.045460 0.068216 0.101762 0.155481
2025-03-16 0.012588 0.019272 0.029168 0.045000 0.069920 0.108007 0.171345
2025-03-23 0.011839 0.018683 0.029138 0.046413 0.074535 0.119017 0.195696
2025-03-30 0.010552 0.017112 0.027418 0.044949 0.074373 0.122381 0.207885
2025-04-06 0.009619 0.016006 0.026311 0.044332 0.075466 0.127792 0.223940
2025-04-13 0.008601 0.014657 0.024674 0.042642 0.074536 0.129638 0.233876
2025-04-20 0.008260 0.014418 0.024857 0.044075 0.079126 0.141395 0.262722
2025-04-27 0.007930 0.014179 0.025040 0.045562 0.084037 0.154346 0.295508
2025-05-04 0.007613 0.013936 0.025195 0.047017 0.089044 0.167998 0.331253
2025-05-11 0.007074 0.013233 0.024451 0.046710 0.090662 0.175386 0.355445
2025-05-18 0.006663 0.012729 0.024021 0.046949 0.093340 0.185044 0.385249
2025-05-25 0.006181 0.012045 0.023189 0.046313 0.094192 0.191123 0.408220
2025-06-01 0.005925 0.011778 0.023136 0.047222 0.098268 0.204131 0.447441
2025-06-08 0.005536 0.011212 0.022440 0.046744 0.099384 0.211048 0.474003
2025-06-15 0.005382 0.011110 0.022668 0.048213 0.104796 0.227645 0.524279
2025-06-22 0.004946 0.010382 0.021548 0.046691 0.103505 0.229441 0.540418
2025-06-29 0.004629 0.009882 0.020861 0.046048 0.104105 0.235492 0.567280
2025-07-06 0.004240 0.009195 0.019721 0.044291 0.101991 0.235125 0.578471